French President Nicolas Sarkozy was last year caught telling
President Barack Obama that he “can’t stand” Benjamin Netanyahu and
branding the Israeli prime minister “a liar.” But Netanyahu may miss
Sarkozy more than most world leaders should the French leader, as
seems likely, fail to secure reelection. Not only has Sarkozy been the
most Israel-friendly French president ever, but he is also Israel’s
best bet for holding Western leaders to a hard line on Iran.
The hyperactive hawkish Sarkozy has played the leading role in pushing
both Europe and the U.S. to toughen their stance on Iran and raise
pressure on Tehran through sanctions on its energy and banking
sectors. Indeed, he has consistently pressed President Obama from the
right on the issue, and has been the leading voice of skepticism among
Western leaders on diplomatic compromise efforts to resolve the
nuclear standoff. Even if his likely successor, Francois Hollande,
maintains France’s formal stance on Iran, he’s unlikely to repeat
Sarkozy’s activist role in pressing others to a more hawkish position
and challenging compromise scenarios.
As Western powers enter negotiations with Iran to settle the nuclear
standoff, there’s no sign that Iran is about to capitulate to the full
menu of Western demands. Still, should Tehran be willing to take
concrete and verifiable steps to ease international concerns over the
nature of its program, Western powers will face the challenge of
defining acceptable compromises. And it’s in that discussion that
Sarkozy could prove to be a spoiler in a manner that would please
Netanyahu.
The Istanbul talks agreed a framework for negotiations based on the
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and a principle of reciprocity.
Although the NPT obliges Iran to account for all its nuclear work to
the satisfaction of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA)—which Iran has yet to do—it also guarantees Tehran’s right to
enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. That means a diplomatic solution
based on the NPT would strengthen safeguards against Iran using its
nuclear capability to build weapons, but would not dismantle and
remove Iran’s enrichment capability—as Israel and France have
demanded.
The Obama Administration’s position on the enrichment issue has been
more ambiguous, having initially inherited the Bush Administration’s
zero-enrichment stance, but more recently spoken of Iran having the
right to a peaceful nuclear program in line with the NPT. Netanyahu’s
hopes for pressing the Western powers to resist any compromise that
leaves Iran with the capacity to enrich uranium wiil be substantially
diminished if Sarkozy leaves the scene.
The French leader has been the leading voice of skepticism over
negotiations among Western leaders, and has energetically pressed both
the Obama Administration and European governments to adopt tougher
sanctions that have had a painful impact on the Iranian economy.
Britain supports France’s zero-enrichment demand, but hasn’t been
quite as activist in promoting it. London is also more likely,
analysts say, to go along with the consensus if Western powers can
fashion an interim deal that offers concrete progress in reinforcing
barriers to Iran using its nuclear program to create weapons, even if
that leaves the issue of Iran’s ongoing low-level enrichment
unresolved for now. A nuclear compromise involving steps to diminish
the danger of weaponization in the near term, but which leaves Iran
with the capacity to enrich uranium and at the same time eases
international pressure on Tehran, is precisely what the Israelis fear
right now. And Sarkozy, while rejecting Israel’s threat to take
military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, could be more
willing to push back against a compromise on the enrichment issue than
Hollande would be.
The Socialist candidate, if he wins the presidency, is expected to be
more of a low-key team player than Sarkozy, who demands the limelight
and has been willing to publicly challenge the Obama Administration to
take a tougher line. Hollande’s plate will be full in managing
domestic challenges, and his key foreign policy priority as president
would be renegotiating the treaty to save the eurozone. Foreign policy
dossiers such as Iran and Syria are likely to be returned to the
French Foreign Ministry, in contrast to Sarkozy’s habit of taking
personal charge. So even if the formal policy remains the same,
Sarkozy’s ouster would silence the most important cheerleader for a
hard line on Iran in the Western camp. That’s why all stakeholders in
the Iran nuclear standoff will be watching closely when French voters
return to the polls on May 6 to settle the matter of whether Sarkozy
will have a second term.
