No fanfare or cavalcade accompanied President-elect Mohammad Morsi when he arrived in Tahrir Square on Friday to address the hundreds of thousands gathered there. He did not even wear a bullet-proof vest, in accordance with his vow to remain a man of the people and for the people.
Morsi pre-empted the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’s (SCAF) swearing-in ceremony, which took place on Saturday, by committing himself to office as an individual human being in the heart of the crowds and the birthplace of the revolution.
Whatever we may think of the Muslim Brotherhood – for this will always remain Morsi’s provenance, despite him surrendering his membership on becoming President – Morsi’s message brought hope to millions across the region. It was a speech reminiscent of those made by the great Arab leaders forty or more years ago.
The Egyptian President emphasized that the revolution had freed his country not only from tyranny within but from economic dependency and political submission to the US. The irony here is that America put pressure on SCAF not to claim victory for their man, Shafiq, fearing a descent into the kind of civil strife currently blighting Syria, Libya and Yemen.
Morsi clearly intends to be more than a symbolic President and reminded SCAF more than once that the people are now the ultimate authority. The problem is that SCAF may not agree.
Morsi appears to be a rather more robust leader than many observers anticipated. He did not skirt around contentious issues, mentioning the Egyptian ‘blind Sheikh’ Omar Abdel-Rahman, for example, who is currently imprisoned in the US on terrorism charges.
Nevertheless, there were some obvious omissions in President Morsi’s speech - particularly his position on the Camp David accords, the blockade on the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli occupation.
Perhaps this was a tactical step to avoid immediately clashing with the ruling junta and external powers, as there are high hopes for him in Egyptian and most Arab communities to respond to Israel’s perceived arrogance in its dealings with the Palestinians.
The coming days and weeks will bring enormous challenges for President Morsi. The first and most immediate problem will be how to persuade SCAF to relinquish power and establish an administrative infrastructure for democratic rule when SCAF has dissolved parliament and obviously want Morsi to be just a ceremonial president who receives delegates, attends events, and smiles for the TV cameras.
The second challenge will be reforming the security institutions which still have the mentality of the former regime, where the bullying experts - who deliberately deepen the state of security collapse to thwart the revolution and cause people to hate it - are nesting.
The third main challenge is the economy: unemployment is more than 12 percent with more than a quarter of the youth unable to find work; more than 40 million Egyptians are living below the poverty line.
Egypt will undoubtedly need economic help from outside, at least in the early stages of this new era. If Morsi does not wish to turn to the US, he must look instead to Egypt’s wealthy neighbours in the Gulf. The signs are not good, mainly because these states fear contagion from the Arab Spring and demands for reform and democracy that would threaten their own regimes.
In addition, the Gulf states have long feared the Muslim Brotherhood; the late Saudi Crown Prince, Nayef Bin Abdulaziz, described the pan-Arab organization as ‘the main source of affliction’ in the region.
Morsi, then, represents a double threat in that he has come to power on the twin tides of democracy and Islamism.
Lieutenant General Dahi Khalfan, Dubai Police Chief, caused a storm in Egypt last week when he tweeted that Morsi’s election was a ‘bad omen’ and that the new President would not be welcome in the UAE.
Saudi Arabia sent a delayed message of congratulation to Morsi but it was a luke-warm offering, accompanied by the cessation of financial aid and direct investments to support the faltering Egyptian economy - a strategy which has also been adopted by UAE, Kuwait and with less passion, Qatar.
On the other hand, the Gulf states feel threatened by the nuclear ambitions of Iran, and may need the political (and possibly military) support of Egypt. If Morsi is able to consolidate his power and create the kind of democratic regime Egyptians are dreaming of, the Gulf states will need to put aside their antipathy for this man. The alternative would see Egypt moving closer to Iran.
Nor are the counter-revolutionary forces entirely extinguished with the defeat of their candidate, Shafiq. They too remain a destabilizing influence and responded to Morsi’s investiture by announcing a period of mourning and opening a hall for condolences.
Following his official inauguration on Saturday, Morsi participated in a military ceremony at a base known as Huckstep Camp. This was a symbolic choice because it formerly housed a court specifically established by Mubarak to try Muslim Brotherhood members.
SCAF leader, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, and his Chief of Staff, General Sami Anan saluted Morsi as he arrived and awarded him the Egyptian military’s highest honour, the ‘shield of the Armed Forces.’ The Egyptian constitution states that the President is the head of the Armed Forces and Morsi, having thanked the generals for their welcome, told them that they could now return to their barracks and get on with the important job of defending Egypt’s frontiers. Whether they will agree that their political role is now over remains to be seen.
