In the tense final days of the French presidential election campaign the candidates’ words have proved revealing. Between the two rounds, the face-off between Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande saw the two men caught in a downward spiral of attacks and counter-attacks designed to win over the voters of the Front National (FN). The television debate between the two confirmed what most people suspected: on immigration-related questions there was little difference between the finalists (as FN leader Marine Le Pen noted in her assessment). As I predicted several years ago, the FN emerged the true victor. The right-wing party polled more votes than in 2002; its ideas have become normalized, the parameter against which the two finalists ultimately positioned themselves. This year’s elections generated none of the emotion and popular mobilization of 2002, when the FN participated in the second round. But today its symbolic victory and the political power that comes with that victory are more telling and far more dangerous. As arbiter of the second round, the FN dominates the political scene; there are ample reasons for concern about France’s future.
I have long held that the two “mainstream” parties, the UMP and the Socialists, shared responsibility for the unchecked growth of populism in France. The themes that have stoked successive controversies (national identity, the niqab, halal meat, prayers in the streets, terrorism, etc.) have created a po
